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Presidential Race Between Biden and Trump Remains Deadlocked; Trump’s Favorability Increases Among Republicans
PRRI Staff,
01.10.2024
Topics: Politics & Elections

New data collected by PRRI in November 2023 show that President Joe Biden’s favorability numbers rank at the lowest levels since the start of his presidency. While former President Donald Trump’s favorability ratings remain relatively low nationally, his favorability among Republicans has increased, with 74% of Republicans now viewing Trump favorably, up from 68% this past June. While favorability ratings for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis show little movement from last spring, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s favorability among Americans increased slightly between June and November. In a two-way match-up for the presidential election, however, voters evenly remain split in their preference between Biden a Trump.

Assessments of the Presidential Frontrunners

Joe Biden

Since June 2023, Biden’s favorability has fallen from 43% to 35%, with six in ten Americans (60%) holding unfavorable views of Biden. As a result, Biden’s net favorability decreased from -10 points in June to -25 points in November 2023.

While Biden’s favorability among Democrats remains similar to June 2023 (77% compared to 81%, respectively), this favorability has steadily declined from 85% in March 2023. Around three in ten independents (32%) have favorable views of Biden, a seven percentage point drop in favorability from June of last year (39%).

Donald Trump

Donald Trump has seen a slight increase in favorability with 37% of Americans now holding favorable views of him compared to 32% last June. Trump’s net favorability has increased in recent months, rising from -34 points in June 2023 to -21 points this past November, however, a solid majority of Americans continue to hold unfavorable views of him (58%). Trump’s favorability among Republicans increased from 68% in June to 74% in November. Around three in ten independents (32%) now have favorable views of Trump, a small increase from 29% in last June.

Ron DeSantis

There have been few changes in Ron DeSantis’ overall favorability ratings since June 2023. Half of Americans now hold an unfavorable view of DeSantis (50%), compared with 56% in June. Additionally, DeSantis’ net favorability has followed a similar trajectory, increasing from -28 points in June 2023 to -22 points this past November.

DeSantis’ favorability among Republicans has not changed significantly from June of last year  (62%) to November (60%). However, there was a larger decrease in DeSantis’ favorability ratings among independents from June (28%) to November (21%).

Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley has seen a slight uptick in favorability between June (21%) and November (25%). Additionally, Haley’s net favorability has increased by 7 points, rising from -17 points in June to -10 points in November. Among Republicans, Haley’s favorability has not significantly shifted from June (40%) to November (44%). There has been little shift in Haley’s favorability among independents from June (24%) to November (25%).

Two-Way Race: Biden vs. Trump

In November 2023, when asked about a hypothetical two-way race between Democrat candidate Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump, 48% of registered voters said they would vote for Joe Biden and 47% said they would vote for Donald Trump. These results are largely similar to findings from our 2023 American Values Survey, when we asked about a hypothetical race between the two front-runners in late August.

Religious Affiliation and Presidential Vote Choice

In a hypothetical 2024 two-way race, Donald Trump maintains a strong majority of support among white evangelical Protestants (78%). He also leads among white Catholics (58%), white mainline/nonevangelical Protestants, and Hispanic Protestants (57%). Biden, however, maintains majority support from religiously unaffiliated voters (70%), Black Protestants (74%), Hispanic Catholics (56%), Jews (64%), and members of other non-Christian religions (67%).

Media Trust

The vast majority of voters who most trust Fox News (93%) and far-right media sources (98%) say they would vote for Trump in a hypothetical 2024 race between Trump and Biden. Additionally, a majority of registered voters who do not watch TV news (57%) support Trump. Seven in ten voters who most trust mainstream media sources support Biden (72%), whereas only 23% support Trump.

Race

Around seven in ten Black (73%) and AAPI (68%) voters say they would vote for Biden in a hypothetical two-way race between Biden and Trump. A slim majority of Hispanic voters (55%) also say they would support Biden. However, half of white voters (53%) say they would vote for Trump over Biden. While a majority of non-college educated white voters support Trump (63%), a majority of college educated white voters support Biden (53%).

Age Groups

Across different age groups, 51% of Americans ages 18 to 29 say they would vote for Biden and 47% say they would vote for Trump in a hypothetical two-way 2024 election. Americans ages 30 to 49 are more likely to vote for Biden (52%) than for Trump (43%) whereas 50-64 year-olds are more likely to vote for Trump (51%) than Biden (45%). Fewer than half (46%) of Americans 65+ report they would vote for Biden and 48% say they would vote for Trump in a hypothetical 2024 two-way race.